I have noted before the chaos that is bubbling within Nevada on both sides of the political isle. Now, granted, Nevada is not a particularly important state by size or resources, but being home of Harry Reid is enough to make the coming races here of intense national interest. Both Reid’s seat is up in 2010, as well as the Governor seat, and several developments are worth noting:
1. Chuck Muth writes this morning:
Many of the senior officers of the Clark County Republican Central Committee officially resigned their positions last night, including Chairman Richard Scotti, who advised in a press release after the meeting that he will now be joining the Sandoval for Governor campaign.
“It is imperative that Republicans maintain control of the Governorship,” Scotti said announcing his resignation. “I am leaving to work towards that goal. As the Clark County Campaign Coordinator (for Brian Sandoval), I will be able to effectively engage in fundraising activities, precinct walking, voter registration and GOTV efforts.”
Scotti’s dignified resignation message, however, can’t disguise the turmoil within the organization. If not for the ongoing dissension being caused by passionate but inexperienced newcomers in the organization, Scotti never would have considered moving on. As it is, the now-former chairman will be able to direct his time and energy to far more productive activities.
But Scotti wasn’t the only one to cash in his chips last evening.
Also reportedly throwing in the towel en masse were party Treasurer Swadeep Nigam, Secretary Heather Kydd, Finance Director Christine DeCorte, Communications Director Ron Futrell, and Board members Melody Howard, Norm Yeager and Martha Kimple.
This reshuffling may be important, but it is more than enough to make one nervous. And despite our current Governor Jim Gibbons’ immense unpopularity, Republicans and Brian Sandoval are not in a terrible position for making a very strong play for continued control of the governorship. But this reshuffling also indicates the deeper question that is troubling the Republican party across the nation: to what degree are the new “purity tests” of true conservatism forwarded by the tea parties going to help or hurt conservative politics? The Clark County Republicans have been in turmoil somewhat like the Hoffman vs. Scozzafava showdown in NY-23…and we (meaning both sides) lost that race.
Would you rather be a totally powerless, but completely pure party of conservatism, or part of a Republican party that has the larger tent including the likes of Scozzafava? This is, of course, complicated by the over-arching issue of the pro-life movement. For example, I don’t think that McCain is a conservative, but I voted for him becuase he is closer to me than Obama on many issues. But I would never have voted for Scozzafava, because she is pro-death. So while I support that “broader tent” approach to Republican politics as a necessary difficulty in the struggle to stay viable in congress, I also think that there are certain issues that can never be compromised on. Deciding what those issues are is much of the chaos that faces the Republican party right now, and explains, in part, this reshuffling in Nevada.
2. The other issue proceeds directly from the first, in that there are (at least) nine Republicans running for the slot against Reid. The Las Vegas Review Journal notes:
The survey of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has yet to hit its target.
“I’d be worried,” said Michael Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine, who studies political advertising. “I’d stop if I had aired ads for two or three weeks and it wasn’t moving the needle.”
According to the poll commissioned by the Review-Journal, 49 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 13 percent were neutral….
Among nine Republican candidates vying to challenge Reid in November only three had support levels in double digits: businesswoman and former GOP official Sue Lowden, attorney and businessman Danny Tarkanian, and former Nevada assemblywoman Sharron Angle.
Lowden and Tarkanian were in a statistical tie, with support from 25 percent and 24 percent of Republican respondents, respectively. Angle was supported by 13 percent.
Six other Republicans received support from 1 percent or less. Ed Hamilton, who is challenging Reid in the Democratic primary, wasn’t tested in the Mason-Dixon poll and isn’t expected to factor into the outcome.
In hypothetical general election matchups, respondents favored Lowden over Reid 51 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided. They favored Tarkanian over Reid 48 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Sharron Angle was not included in these hypothetical election matchups.
This is good news, right? In part. The fact that both Lowden and Tarkanian are beating Reid (well beyond the margin of error) is certainly something of good cheer, particularly when you remember that Reid has far more money than both of them, and has been barraging the district with ads for weeks now. And did you notice that this weekend, Reid asked the Senate to take the time off so he could go to a fundraiser ($1000 a plate…)? He knows very well that he is in trouble.
But keep this in mind as well: 33 percent of those asked about the Republican primary were still undecided. With Lowden at 25 %, Tarkanian at 24 %, and Angel at 13%, a huge number have not made up their minds. Granted, there is still plenty of time, and the campaigns are only really hitting full steam about now, but the lack of a clear front runner should give us pause. The Reid attack machine is infamous, and clearly, whoever the Republicans nominate has an uphill battle, without the hindrance of a difficult, wide open primary. And given the general chaos that Republicans face already in reconciling the tea partiers, the Ron Paulites, the half blood conservatives, and the pro-lifers, one has to wonder if they will really coalesce around whoever does win the nomination…
In the end, many of them may simply feel as W.C. Feilds: “I never vote for anyone. I always vote against.” And this alone may be enough to topple Reid. That is the audacity of my hope.
Categories: Congress, Local Politics, Politics
\\ Tags: Brian Sandoval, Chuck Muth, Nevada, Reid, Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden, Tarkanian
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